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What the Heck Happened in Cuyahoga County, Ohio?

A citizen provided WDW with an overall analysis of votes counted in Cuyahoga County, Ohio.

The below chart and data compare how well President Obama did against Governor Romney to a couple of derived factors, by precinct. D/(D+R) is a measure of the “Democratness” (vs. Republican) in the results.

Click on chart for larger view

Some indications: President Obama did better in areas with lower turnout. The analysis is balanced Obama against Romney alone, that means that Romney did better in areas with better turnout.

However, while that general statement is true, normal assumptions cannot be made about this fact yet, because we are using a linear correlation against a decidedly nonlinear data set.

We already know from the chart below that Obama garnered an improbably large number of precincts with over 98% of that electorate, but 96-98 and 94-96 and so on show no increase above the overall pattern.

Not only is the vote “bent”, it is bent in a fashion that defies attempts to account for it without specialized knowledge of the facts behind the data.

Which is where we should be for finding things out. The analysis continues.

RELATED COLUMN: Voter rolls in Ohio are bloated, experts say

Some results:

[r , r^2] correlations between:
D/(D+R) and RV: [-0.20 , 0.04]
D/(D+R) and BC: [-0.46, 0.21]
D/(D+R) and TO_pct: [-0.54. 0.29]
D/(D+R) and Good_Other: [-0.53, 0.28]
D/(D+R) and Bad: [0.08, 0.006]

D/(D+R) is ballots counted for Obama divided by sum of ballots counted only for either Obama or Romney. This excludes all bad ballots and any other vote.
RV is Registered Voters.
BC is Ballots Cast
TO_pct is Turnout percentage, as reported by the County. I believe this is simply BC/RV, but have not verified it. It’s close.
Good_Other is ballots counted as valid for one of the several other candidates on the ballot, or a write-in.
Bad is all ballots called blank, under-vote, or over-vote.

Categories: News
Tags: , , ,

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